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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest upset.

However the latest field is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers improving collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still